It’s time to dive into my NYC real estate market predictions for 2024! Here’s what I think will be in store for the new year.

Lower Interest Rates Will Boost The Market, Slowly  

Lower interest rates will motivate buyers on the sidelines to get back into the game to see what’s available. And we’re likely to see quite a bit of renewed activity at the beginning of the year, as current listings find new buyers.

But the level of activity is likely to be muted. Inventory is still low, especially in Brooklyn. And some would-be buyers might be dismayed relatively quickly by this reality. However, that could change if inventory increases more meaningfully. If inventory looks healthier, we might see a pretty significant boost. 

Lower Interest Rates May Equal More Listings 

Some sellers have been wanting to make a move but can’t because high interest rates meant the move didn’t make financial sense. But with interest rates coming down and prices not seeing significant declines (more on that later), selling will be more appealing. 

But this will lead to just a moderate boost in listings. For those sellers who aren’t truly motivated to sell, putting their homes on the market won’t quite make sense yet. Especially if they’re sitting on very low interest rates. However, if buyer interest is strong enough, that could push up prices enough to entice some sellers to try their hand. 

Speaking of prices… 

Prices Will Stabilize 

Both sellers and buyers may find some degree of relief when it comes to prices, at least at the beginning of the year. An influx of listings plus older listings lingering on the market will keep prices in check, especially in Manhattan. But renewed interest from buyers will likely keep prices at their current levels. 

However, it’s important to note that this may not play out in some segments, especially in Brooklyn, which has seen far more constricted inventory. So Brooklyn buyers shouldn’t be too surprised if prices continue to increase, especially in the 2 bedroom, 3 bedroom and townhouse segments. But these costs are likely to be offset by falling interest rates. You can see what I mean from last month’s post about the cost of 3 bedroom units. The overall cost of homeownership declined in several segments due to lower interest rates. 

Renters Will Catch A Few Small Breaks

Renters are likely to see rents stop their climb in much of 2024, especially in Manhattan. Inventory is starting off 2024 at some of the highest levels seen since August 2021. And because selling may still not make sense for a number of property owners, more rental listings may continue to come to the market. 

Additionally, brand new inventory will be coming online in the outer boroughs. This higher inventory will mean that landlords won’t be able to exert the same kind of control they had in previous years

However, rental demand still outpaces rental supply. There should be more options and a breather on escalating rents. But renters shouldn’t expect to see much in the way of declining rents. That being said, if inventory exceeds expectations, we could see a small downturn in prices. 

More NYC Real Estate Predictions for 2024

Check out this round up of links for more NYC real estate predictions from experts for 2024. And if you’re looking for a recap of NYC real estate for 2023, check out this post.

2024 NYC Real Estate Forecast: Buyers And Sellers Emerge, Renters Gain Leverage (BrickUnderground)

5 Things To Watch For In Manhattan Real Estate Heading Into 2024 (Forbes)

Housing Market Predictions for 2024 (Bankrate)

2024 Will Be a Better Year for Homebuyers (Curbed NY)

2024 NYC Housing Market Predictions (StreetEasy)